Learning for 2020

My journey to understand what life will be in year 2020 and how we should prepare our next generation to cope with life at 2020.

Location: Melbourne, Australia

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

What will her future be - 2?

[Note: this is a post I wrote on Saturday, February 05, 2005 posted on my other blog Random Walk in E-Learning ]

Couple of months ago, I asked What will her future be? as a way to try to look into the future and hope to find a direction to educate my daughter.

Starting from an economical view, I have concluded our future in the developed world is
a future where
  • repetitive tasks will be replaced by computer and machinery,

  • creativity and innovation are critical,

  • communication skill, team work and problem solving skill are important,

  • productivity must be so high that an average people will support the needs of parents who had inadequately funded their retirement and children of their own

  • Today, I am not any wiser. However an article in McKinseyQuarterly Don't blame trade for US job losses points out that in USA (as an example of developed countries), the manufacturing job market share has been falling for at least half a century - and I believe it will continue to fall. Godfrey Parkin also shared my concern and noted that

    To some, this was going to be The American Century with the US as the hub of a booming knowledge economy. Lower-paid menial jobs would go, and Americans would upgrade to higher-paid knowledge jobs. George Bush, when asked what he would say to someone who had just lost his job to someone in India, said he’d give that poor worker some money to get a better education in a community college. But many of those losing jobs to offshore companies don’t need community college educations, because they are already graduate engineers or PhDs in computer science. The White House has become an Ivory Tower.

    and further worries that instead of "The American Century", it may become "The Chinese Century":

    A very high percentage of everything that US consumers buy comes from a factory in China. What happens when Chinese entrepreneurs wake up to e-commerce and disintermediate the entire US retail sector? Why would you pay $500 for a designer suit at Macy's when you can get the same suit from the same factory online for $50? $35 for a blender at Target, or $5 for the same thing online? A couple of Chinese Amazon.coms and a Chinese FedEx could cripple one of the few sectors in the US where employment is currently growing. And it could happen overnight.

    I am delighted to heard Richard Florida from ITconversation talking about The Rise of the Creative Class. A light seems to shine through. This century is a new century where the economy is no longer driven by manufacturing. How important creativity will be in the future economy is anybody's guess. If Richard Florida is right, at least we should start cultivating creativity, diversity, communication skills and in dependent learning ability in our next generation.


    Blogger Tito Maury said...

    I have a
    free simulation software site/blog. It pretty much covers What will her future be - 2? related stuff.
    Come and check it out if you get time :-)

    2:59 am  

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